My Prediction for the 2023 Housing Market:

The real estate market will stay volatile and move with interest rates. If rates stay level or go higher, home values will continue to decline. If rates go lower, I believe we will see demand sky rocket and prices will slowly increase as housing affordability improves.

Scenario 1: Rates Stay the Same: If rates were to stay around where they are today, I predict sales volume, number of transactions, and buyer demand to be very low. Prices would stay on their similar trend and we could be looking at 2-5% price declines YOY.

Scenario 2: Rates go higher: If rates were to go even higher, we could see home values go down 5-10% YOY. As we've seen, buyers cannot afford today’s home prices at higher interest rates.

Scenario 3: Rates go lower: If rates continue to go lower, I believe we will see a slow recovery in the real estate market. Negative price appreciation should reverse by late spring or early summer as sidelined buyers push up demand. With this scenario, I believe home values will go up 2-5% YOY.

No matter which scenario unfolds, 2023 will be a year for opportunity in the housing market. There will be more off market deals. There will be more foreclosures. Sellers will take advantage of their equity positions. First time home buyers will have more opportunities to purchase in affordable price points. Boomers will be able to down size. Millennials will be able to upgrade.

What are your real estate goals for 2023? Pay off your home? Buy an investment property? Downsize? Upsize? Leverage your homes equity? Whatever your goals may be, reach out to your trusted realtor and come up with a game plan so you are ready to make a move when the time comes in this volatile market.

In Mesa County

• There are currently 525 active homes on the market in Mesa County. This is a 4% decrease from 543 last week

• The average sold price YTD $425,707 and the median sold price YTD is $385,000.

• There have been 37 price reductions in the last 8 days.

• The average DOM for the active homes is 66

Last Weeks New Listings

Last Weeks Sold Listings

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

The NAR reported Pending Home Sales (contracts on existing homes) dropped in November, but noted: “With mortgage rates falling… home-buying activity should inevitably rebound in the coming months.”

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index reported home prices fell nationally in October for the fourth straight month. Annual price growth also keeps dropping, though October was still 9.2% above last year.

First American's chief economist predicts that if mortgage rates continue to fall, household incomes stay flat, and home prices plateau as expected, housing affordability will improve by 9% by the end of 2023.

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