October 31st: Real Estate Update

Keenan Coit, Coldwell Banker Distinctive Properties

October 31, 2022

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Nationally, the median home price is up 13.9% from a year ago. Declining affordability is the largest hurdle the real estate market is facing. Because really, how many first time home buyers can afford a $3,000/month payment at the average $400,000 price point?  Buying demand was high when rates were at 3%. Buying demand is the lowest they've been in 20 years at 7%. I'd say for our market to stabilize, we need rates to be in the middle, around 5%. 

Many analysts are predicting rates to hit 5.5% in late Spring next year. I believe when or if that happens, the extreme buyers market window will close quickly as buying demand soars.

In Mesa County

  • There are currently 608 active homes on the market in Mesa County. This is a slight decrease compared to last week

  • The average sold price YTD $426,790 and the median sold price YTD is $386,500.

  • There have been 86 price reductions in the last 7 days.

  • The average DOM for the active homes is 64

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

New Home Sales fell 10.9% in September, now 17.6% below where they were a year ago. With rising mortgage rates and higher prices, the problem is declining affordability. The median price is up 13.9% from a year ago.

The Pending Home Sales index of signed contracts on existing homes dropped 10.2% in September. The National Association of Realtors observed: "Persistent inflation has proven quite harmful to the housing market."

But affordability is improving. For the second month in a row, the Case-Shiller and FHFA home price indexes fell in August, hitting the fastest pace since 2010-2011. They’re still up annually, Case-Shiller, 13.0%, and FHFA, 11.9%.

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